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China in 5 and 15 years

2020-10-30 | China

bureaucracy|high bureaucrats

Obviously, there is substantial variation in the analysis from rival imperialisms. The U.S. press emphasizes the bet on technological sovereignty and the foreseeable rise of militarism. The Japanese press, although relieved by the announcement of a greater opening of the Chinese internal market, fears that the green deal, in theory an opportunity to sell clean technologies, will raise obstacles for Japanese companies to expand their local operations.


The core: a defensive movement in three times

The trade war and the growing military pressure in the China Sea and the exit to the Indian Ocean have made the CCP bureaucracy aware of its strategic weaknesses. This has strengthened the outlook of the military sector, which had been raising the issue for twenty years. We should not forget that Huawei and other strategic companies are a business excrescence of the People's Liberation Army (PLA), which is also the largest infrastructure builder in the Chinese state. As an analyst from the Beijing Academy of Sciences commented:

China has a deep understanding of its deficiencies in technology, economy and living standards that could be the target of the United States... only when these shortcomings are overcome can China be impeccable

The core of the new Chinese strategy therefore bears the stamp of the PLA and is materialized in a three-phase movement:

The distinction between economic vanguard (exports) and rearguard (domestic market) is strengthened, with the concept of dual circulation: two mercantile circuits between which the state would mediate to ensure a balanced growth. It would be a matter of maximizing exports by developing a flexible internal economy capable of supplying through credit and demand policies the stoppages and abrupt changes that the imperialist conflict might produce in foreign demand. The aim is thus to avoid commercial or technological blockades, disruptions in supply routes and armed conflicts that would destabilize the internal productive fabric and feed situations of instability.

Technological sovereignty and resource sufficiency become key points to strengthen the export sector in the face of trade warfare and technological blockades. Developing its own semiconductor and chip industry, and joining the technology blockade game with the United States are becoming priority objectives. The goal of global leadership in new technologies such as AI takes a back seat. The change points to a perspective not only of self-sufficiency as highlighted by the press, but of true technological rupture and industrial standards.

The strengthening of Chinese capital's rearguard is also materialized geographically and energetically. The military has been struggling for a long time to accelerate the conquest of the West. Although details have not yet been published, it is already assumed that the new special economic zones will be established with priority in the western regions, bordering Russia, Mongolia and the Central Asian republics. The aim is to move the industry to strategically safer regions and to promote continental logistic routes, with the possibility of transporting production by land to Europe and the Middle East in case of instability in the Indian and Pacific Oceans. On the other hand, the implementation of a green deal under the heading of goals for a beautiful China, will not only mean a form of transferring resources from labor to capital to revive accumulation - as in Europe- but will have a strategic dimension, of energy sovereignty something which is secondary for its rivals.

Uncertainty and power

The head of the Chinese state bourgeoisie: Xi Jinping, Li Keqiang, Li Zhanshu, Wang Yang, Wang Huning, Zhao Leji and Han Zheng.

One of the most disturbing elements is that, for the first time, a five-year plan has no quantitative targets. This quiet acceptance of uncertainty is also accompanied by a cryptic reaffirmation of Xi's goal of building the world's largest army by 2049... already with a certain urgency because, as the Hong Kong press comments:

Basically, the goal is to develop the PLA's capacity to match the U.S. military by 2027, so that it can effectively deter U.S. military interference in the Taiwan Strait

state capitalism


For the first time, China has set a clear timetable for building a great socialist culture by 2035, one of its long-term visionary goals, according to Wang Xiaohui, deputy director of the Central Propaganda Department. China's cultural soft power and comprehensive influence will be further enhanced, he said, with three key tasks for the next five years: improving the level of social civilization, improving the level of public culture and enhancing the cultural system.